| GREG-STRANGE.COM |
"If you haven't found something strange during the
day, it hasn't been much of a day." -- John A. Wheeler
day, it hasn't been much of a day." -- John A. Wheeler
PROVIDING SUBSTANTIVE COMMENTARY ON THE
PEOPLE, POLITICS, EVENTS AND ABSURDITIES OF
OUR TIME. SERVED UP WITH ACERBIC WIT, YOU
SHOULD FIND IT QUITE SATISFYING.
PEOPLE, POLITICS, EVENTS AND ABSURDITIES OF
OUR TIME. SERVED UP WITH ACERBIC WIT, YOU
SHOULD FIND IT QUITE SATISFYING.
Running In Place Over Iran
When it comes to what to do about Iran and its quest to
gain nuclear weapons, there are no easy solutions, there are
only less potentially catastrophic solutions, or rather, less
potentially catastrophic courses of action which might or
might not bring about anything remotely resembling an actual
solution. Sort of like everything else in that part of the world,
only worse. Which is why there is so little comfort in the
knowledge that China, Russia, Britain, Germany and France
now all agree with the U.S. that Iran must completely suspend
its nuclear program. Hey, that and a dime’ll get you a
diplomatic stalemate and a nuclear armed Iran.
Knowing the irresoluteness of the vaunted international
community when it comes to matters like this, the point of view
of Iran’s madcap mullahs is bound to be something along the
lines of, “Oh yeah? Well, you and whose army is gonna do
something about it?” Of course, everybody knows whose army
comes to mind, but that particular army is conspicuously
occupied for the foreseeable future in Iraq and to a lesser
extent in Afghanistan. Anybody else’s army simply can’t do the
job or wouldn’t if it could. Therefore, end of column, it’s all
hopeless, so let’s just move on to another issue.
Nope, check that. While it would be far more amusing and
less intellectually taxing to analyze something else, like the
Golden Globe’s obsession with gay and transsexual themes this
past year, it’s just not as pressing as the issue of an Israel-
hating, trigger-happy, nuclear nut case on the loose in the
Middle East.
When a guy like Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
says that Israel needs to be wiped off the face of the map, and
when supposed “moderate” Hashemi Rafsanjani is on record
saying that “a single atomic bomb has the power to destroy
Israel completely while an Israeli counterstrike can only cause
partial damage to the Islamic world,” you have to sit up and
take notice. But obviously, endless palaver, as the
international community is so wont to engage in, won’t
accomplish anything. So what are the least potentially
catastrophic options worth considering, and for that matter,
what are the consequences of doing nothing at all?
To address the latter question first, the possibility of a
nuclear exchange would become perhaps more likely than it
was even during the Cold War. That stand-off between nuclear
superpowers may have been scary, but at least the players, even
the evil one (that would be the Soviet Union for those of you
who are morally confused), were rational enough to want to
avoid national suicide. The same might not be true of Iran, or
at least the addlebrained ayatollahs running things. From
their point of view, what’s the big deal about a nuclear
exchange with Israel, for instance, when you believe that the
absolute worst case scenario -- losing that exchange -- gets you
a one-way ticket to paradise a little sooner than planned? As
downsides go, that’s pretty easy to take. But the upside, the
long awaited annihilation of Israel, is just pure ecstasy on
earth. In other words, they just might go for it.
That‘s obviously one of the worst case scenarios, but there
are plenty of other concerns if Iran goes nuclear and here’s the
short list. Iran being the world’s number one state sponsor of
terrorism, it would make it more likely that nukes would find
their way into the hands of apocalyptic terrorists out to destroy
America and wreak havoc throughout the West. A nuclear Iran
would destabilize the region even more than it already is with
negative consequences for the world oil supply and therefore
the world economy. And it would make other countries in the
region clamor that much more to gain such weaponry
themselves, thereby making the whole endeavor of nuclear
nonproliferation a laughable exercise in futility. I could go on,
but you get the idea.
As for potential solutions to the problem, first off, you can
forget about sanctions and various forms of world
condemnation. Such things generally only work, if they work at
all, against rational states, like South Africa, for instance. Iran
simply doesn’t qualify.
And then there’s the idea of covert subversion with the goal
of sparking a revolutionary overthrow of the government by
popular forces fed up with the dictatorial regime. If only. That
might take years or never happen at all.
Some think Israel will take care of the problem like they did
with Saddam’s nuclear reactor back in ‘81, but Iran likely has
its nuclear program dispersed throughout hundreds of sites,
making it far too difficult for Israel to handle.
Which leads to what may be the only answer: a massive,
coordinated U.S. air strike on every possible site that might
conceivably be housing some part of Iran’s nuke program and
lasting weeks if necessary. It’s a nightmarish scenario when
you think about the unavoidable collateral damage, negative
world opinion and the possibility that the entire Muslim world
might go bananas, but could it really be any worse than the
potential consequences of doing nothing? Even Senator
Rodham Clinton is now saying that no option should be
removed from the table when it comes to preventing Iran from
going nuclear.
If only the majority of civilized Western countries weren’t
so paralyzed by irrational self-loathing and lack of moral and
intestinal fortitude, the task of dealing with Iran could
actually be relatively easy. The civilized countries could
simply join together in magnificent multilateral solidarity and
tell Iran they’re coming in to dismantle the program, whatever
it takes. While Iran could give a lone cowboy country like
America enough grief to make a unilateralist gambit a total
nightmare, it couldn’t so easily defy the entire civilized world if
it knew it was united and meant business.
Ah, well, that’s just a phantasmagorical reverie on my part.
I’d also like to buy the world a Coke and teach it to sing in
perfect harmony, but that’s not going to happen either. Sooner
or later it will come down to military action. If not, then Iran
bullies and connives its way into the nuclear club and the
world gets a lot more complicated and dangerous.
When it comes to what to do about Iran and its quest to
gain nuclear weapons, there are no easy solutions, there are
only less potentially catastrophic solutions, or rather, less
potentially catastrophic courses of action which might or
might not bring about anything remotely resembling an actual
solution. Sort of like everything else in that part of the world,
only worse. Which is why there is so little comfort in the
knowledge that China, Russia, Britain, Germany and France
now all agree with the U.S. that Iran must completely suspend
its nuclear program. Hey, that and a dime’ll get you a
diplomatic stalemate and a nuclear armed Iran.
Knowing the irresoluteness of the vaunted international
community when it comes to matters like this, the point of view
of Iran’s madcap mullahs is bound to be something along the
lines of, “Oh yeah? Well, you and whose army is gonna do
something about it?” Of course, everybody knows whose army
comes to mind, but that particular army is conspicuously
occupied for the foreseeable future in Iraq and to a lesser
extent in Afghanistan. Anybody else’s army simply can’t do the
job or wouldn’t if it could. Therefore, end of column, it’s all
hopeless, so let’s just move on to another issue.
Nope, check that. While it would be far more amusing and
less intellectually taxing to analyze something else, like the
Golden Globe’s obsession with gay and transsexual themes this
past year, it’s just not as pressing as the issue of an Israel-
hating, trigger-happy, nuclear nut case on the loose in the
Middle East.
When a guy like Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
says that Israel needs to be wiped off the face of the map, and
when supposed “moderate” Hashemi Rafsanjani is on record
saying that “a single atomic bomb has the power to destroy
Israel completely while an Israeli counterstrike can only cause
partial damage to the Islamic world,” you have to sit up and
take notice. But obviously, endless palaver, as the
international community is so wont to engage in, won’t
accomplish anything. So what are the least potentially
catastrophic options worth considering, and for that matter,
what are the consequences of doing nothing at all?
To address the latter question first, the possibility of a
nuclear exchange would become perhaps more likely than it
was even during the Cold War. That stand-off between nuclear
superpowers may have been scary, but at least the players, even
the evil one (that would be the Soviet Union for those of you
who are morally confused), were rational enough to want to
avoid national suicide. The same might not be true of Iran, or
at least the addlebrained ayatollahs running things. From
their point of view, what’s the big deal about a nuclear
exchange with Israel, for instance, when you believe that the
absolute worst case scenario -- losing that exchange -- gets you
a one-way ticket to paradise a little sooner than planned? As
downsides go, that’s pretty easy to take. But the upside, the
long awaited annihilation of Israel, is just pure ecstasy on
earth. In other words, they just might go for it.
That‘s obviously one of the worst case scenarios, but there
are plenty of other concerns if Iran goes nuclear and here’s the
short list. Iran being the world’s number one state sponsor of
terrorism, it would make it more likely that nukes would find
their way into the hands of apocalyptic terrorists out to destroy
America and wreak havoc throughout the West. A nuclear Iran
would destabilize the region even more than it already is with
negative consequences for the world oil supply and therefore
the world economy. And it would make other countries in the
region clamor that much more to gain such weaponry
themselves, thereby making the whole endeavor of nuclear
nonproliferation a laughable exercise in futility. I could go on,
but you get the idea.
As for potential solutions to the problem, first off, you can
forget about sanctions and various forms of world
condemnation. Such things generally only work, if they work at
all, against rational states, like South Africa, for instance. Iran
simply doesn’t qualify.
And then there’s the idea of covert subversion with the goal
of sparking a revolutionary overthrow of the government by
popular forces fed up with the dictatorial regime. If only. That
might take years or never happen at all.
Some think Israel will take care of the problem like they did
with Saddam’s nuclear reactor back in ‘81, but Iran likely has
its nuclear program dispersed throughout hundreds of sites,
making it far too difficult for Israel to handle.
Which leads to what may be the only answer: a massive,
coordinated U.S. air strike on every possible site that might
conceivably be housing some part of Iran’s nuke program and
lasting weeks if necessary. It’s a nightmarish scenario when
you think about the unavoidable collateral damage, negative
world opinion and the possibility that the entire Muslim world
might go bananas, but could it really be any worse than the
potential consequences of doing nothing? Even Senator
Rodham Clinton is now saying that no option should be
removed from the table when it comes to preventing Iran from
going nuclear.
If only the majority of civilized Western countries weren’t
so paralyzed by irrational self-loathing and lack of moral and
intestinal fortitude, the task of dealing with Iran could
actually be relatively easy. The civilized countries could
simply join together in magnificent multilateral solidarity and
tell Iran they’re coming in to dismantle the program, whatever
it takes. While Iran could give a lone cowboy country like
America enough grief to make a unilateralist gambit a total
nightmare, it couldn’t so easily defy the entire civilized world if
it knew it was united and meant business.
Ah, well, that’s just a phantasmagorical reverie on my part.
I’d also like to buy the world a Coke and teach it to sing in
perfect harmony, but that’s not going to happen either. Sooner
or later it will come down to military action. If not, then Iran
bullies and connives its way into the nuclear club and the
world gets a lot more complicated and dangerous.